The outlook was rather grim.
"The recovery from the pandemic returns the economy to its pre-pandemic path of slow decline," read this year's budget documents for the Northwest Territories.
The budget goes on to list a raft of challenges: inflation, high interest rates, a shortage of workers, insufficient economic diversification, and the fast-approaching closure of the territory's three diamond mines.
This summer's devastating wildfires and evacuations haven't helped the situation.
Now, candidates in the N.W.T. general election are out canvassing, and business leaders are expressing their concerns and offering ideas for how to invigorate the territory's wilting economy.
Land development difficulties
"Fundamentally, if you want to grow the economy, you need to grow your population," said Rob Warburton, a Yellowknife developer and city councillor.
Specifically, the territory needs more skilled workers, he said, but a lack of housing across the N.W.T. is a big barrier to bringing them in.
"All the focus of government is consistently about social housing and the housing corporation, which needs a lot of attention, but there's no conversation around the private sector, which actually provides most of your housing in Yellowknife, Hay River," he said.
"I'd love to hear some candidates talk about how do we support economic growth in partnership with industry, because that's who actually builds your housing, that's who employs a lot of people."
One thing the territorial government could do to spur housing development is make more land available to communities, he said. Right now, he said, the process for getting that land in Yellowknife is akin to "pulling teeth out of your face."
Adrian Bell, a realtor and president of the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce, agrees that growing the population and addressing the labour shortage are key to economic growth — and that more housing is necessary to achieve those things.
"I hear this all the time of people who've accepted jobs and they come to town to try to find housing and they can't, and they have to turn the job down and they leave," he said.
"We need housing, and in order to have housing, we need land, and in order for the city to get land, the GNWT has to give it land, and that has been one of the roadblocks."
The N.W.T. administers about three quarters of the land in Yellowknife, but the city is in an area included in land claim negotiations, which restricts the transfer of land.
Fourteen per cent of the land within Yellowknife is completely off limits to development while the Akaitcho land claim process is underway.
The Department of Environment and Climate Change (ECC), said the transfer of public land is subject to the Limitation of Land Sales Policy, and if a person or organization is interested in leasing public land, they must apply to ECC. That application would be followed by a consultation and engagement process.
In Bell's view, the way in which the City of Yellowknife applies to the territorial government for land isn't working. He said the Yellowknife chamber would like to see candidates support the N.W.T. government and the city in working together to bring more land to market.
The last Legislative Assembly recognized that settling land and self-government agreements would not only affirm Indigenous and treaty rights, but would lay a foundation for economic development — reasons why it was one of the group's 22 mandate priorities.
But no such agreements were finalized during the last four years.
"The inability for us to move the needle on those land claims, that dissuades tons of investment in our territory," said Warburton. "If there's no certainty on the land claim, there's no certainty on what you can do economically."
Public sector employment overtakes private sector
During the pandemic, the number of residents working in the public sector in the N.W.T. overtook the number in the private sector for the first time — a development the territorial government called "significant and concerning."
In 2023-24 budget documents, the government said that if the trend doesn't reverse, it could lead to a "hollowing out of the private sector."
Newton Grey, president of the N.W.T. Chamber of Commerce, said the government routinely plucks workers from the territory's private businesses, and owners often feel like they double as professional trainers for future government employees.
"Most of us, we want the best for employees, so we're not going to stand in their way because we want them to grow," said Grey. "But if I am serving as the employment agency for the government, what incentive is the government providing for that?"
Grey wondered whether the government could help in private sector recruiting, or subsidize some salaries.
In the lead up to the election, he's urging businesses and citizens to challenge candidates on their ideas for improving the health of the private sector.
The future of mining
Diamond mining has long been a major driver of the territory's economy, but its influence will diminish as the three diamond mines wind down, which is expected in the next seven years. Diavik Diamond Mine is set to close during the next Legislative Assembly, in 2025.
Tom Hoefer, executive director of the NWT and Nunavut Chamber of Mines, said other mining projects on the go in the territory simply won't fill the hole that Diavik will leave behind.
"We still need more and to get more means you have to have more exploration dollars coming up," he said.
But investment in exploration has been declining over the last 15 years as the territory competes with the provinces where costs are lower thanks to easy access to roads, rail and sustainable power, said Hoefer.
He said the next batch of MLAs could renew the government's lobbying of Ottawa for a "North of 60" exploration tax credit that would incentivize exploration in the territories.
There are still 24 days until election day, meaning candidates have some time to refine and promote their platforms, and the Northwest Territories business community will be watching.
People, housing, land: N.W.T. business leaders call for cascade of change from next gov't - CBC.ca
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