Canadian economy added 31000 jobs in October as hiring pace slows - The Globe and Mail

Pedestrians walk along Yonge Street, in downtown Toronto, on Nov. 19, 2020.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Canada’s streak of job growth continued in October, though it slowed from a torrid pace.

The country added 31,000 jobs last month, following a gain of 157,000 positions in September, Statistics Canada said Friday. The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 per cent from 6.9 per cent. It was the fifth consecutive month of job growth since the summer reopening.

As of October, around 19.16 million Canadians were employed – or nearly 32,000 more than in February, 2020, when the pandemic upended the economy.

Despite the threat of the Delta variant of COVID-19, hiring has continued to chug along in early fall. The October gain was entirely driven by the private sector, which saw an increase of 70,000 jobs. And the standout industry was retail, adding 72,000 positions for the month.

After wild bouts of layoffs and hiring in much of the past two years, Friday’s labour report resembled a “normal” one, said Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter in a report to investors, pointing out that monthly job creation in 2019 averaged just under 30,000.

“Over all, a bit of a ho-hum report, which will make little impact on the timing of any rate moves by the Bank of Canada – but given the wildness of the prior 18 months, no one is complaining about ho-hum,” Mr. Porter said.

The question is whether that normality persists. Federal financial supports for employers and individuals – such as the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy and Canada Recovery Benefit – expired on Oct. 23, which could have a ripple effect on hiring and labour participation.

At the same time, job openings are continuing to grow, and employers remain vocal about their struggles to fill vacancies. There has also been further easing of health restrictions, such as the removal of capacity limits on indoor dining in Ontario in late October.

“With COVID cases on the decline, and some provinces continuing to ease restrictions … employment should continue to advance, driven by industries with strong labour demand,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam in a note to clients.

The labour market hit some milestones last month. Full-time employment for men in the core working ages of 25 to 54 returned to its prepandemic level. For women in that cohort, full-time work has increased by nearly 100,000 positions since the pandemic started.

While the labour participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 65.3 per cent in October, it has fully recovered and was at record or near-record highs for most age groups, Statscan noted.

Still, there are segments of the labour market that are struggling greatly. In particular, self-employment continued a lengthy slide, falling another 38,000 positions in October. Statscan noted that self-employment now stands at the lowest level seen since March of 2007.

Despite having a large number of vacancies, the hospitality industry lost workers for a second consecutive month, dropping by some 27,000 people in October. Restaurants and hotels have been some of the most vocal businesses about their hiring challenges. Hospitality jobs are down 17 per cent (207,000) since COVID-19 started.

While employment has returned to prepandemic levels, Canada is still short of a full recovery. The employment rate of 61 per cent is down 0.8 percentage points over the pandemic, reflecting growth of the adult population. To close the employment-rate gap, another 265,000 jobs are needed for a full recovery, based on today’s population.

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Canadian economy added 31000 jobs in October as hiring pace slows - The Globe and Mail
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