WASHINGTON — The Biden administration arrived in Washington in January with a wind at its back. After months of struggles with Covid-19, a new vaccine seemed poised to tamp down the virus and unleash a period of economic growth.
But something happened on the road to recovery: The Delta variant. Delta turned the summer of independence into a summer of hesitation, and now the great economic boom seems to be locked in a perpetual state of "coming soon” as Americans wonder if there are more twists and turns coming in the Covid pandemic.
Data from Gallup show just how quickly the story can turn and did turn this summer, in a matter of just a few short months.
June data from Gallup showed 89 percent of Americans believed the Covid situation was getting better. You read that correctly: 89 percent. You can barely get 89 percent of Americans to agree on what day it is, but they agreed in June that things were looking up.
By July, however, the "getting better" figure had dropped to 41 percent and by August the number had cratered at 15 percent. And in the same surveys, the figures for Covid "getting worse" moved in the opposite direction, from 3 percent in June to 46 percent in July and all the way up to 68 percent in August.
As a point of reference, the CDC declared the Delta variant a concern on June 15.
Those are dramatic swings in people's perceptions of Covid and as those views changed, the economy reacted. Consumer confidence fell, "back to work" dates were moved and jobs numbers became difficult to read — bouncing from week to week.
But if you want a way to measure the impact of the Delta variant, consider what has happened with travel in the United States. One economic area stands out for being particularly susceptible to COVID concerns. Take a look at data on people flying from the TSA. The numbers compare travelers in 2021 to the same period in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year).
From January forward, the monthly numbers showed travel getting closer and closer to pre-pandemic norms in 2021. That was true until August when numbers inched away again.
That improvement in July compared to June takes into account tickets purchased before the Delta variant came to dominate the news. In the wake of the Delta stories, came the August dip — and there is more evidence of a travel slowdown in the weeks ahead.
A September survey of regular travelers from Destination Analysts, a travel and tourism market research firm, showed the impacts of Delta more directly.
More than a quarter of those surveyed said they had canceled trips due to the Delta variant and an even larger group, 34 percent, said they had postponed trips due to Delta.
That's a lot of meals not prepared at restaurants and a lot of potential airplane seats and hotel rooms not filled — at least for now.
The real question for everyone, of course, is when will things get back to "normal" and the answer from many Americans seems to be "let me think about that."
Destination Analysts asked travelers in mid-August what month they were targeting for overnight trips and then again asked in early September and the answers showed notable movement on the second survey. October became more popular and 2022 or beyond was the biggest gainer.
The increases for later months, especially for the days stretching into 2022, suggest that Delta is pushing travel to a later time when travelers' presume conditions with the virus will improve. A number of other questions in the survey showed a similar trend, hesitancy for the current moment, but optimism for later dates and better days.
But those better days, right now, are theoretical. The mood could shift again, as it did this summer, with a new variant or extended troubles with Delta. One big lesson with Covid-19 so far is certainty is hard to come by.
And, of course, there's a big political element to all of this.
Nine months in the Biden presidency, “normalcy” remains the dream for Democrats. It would bring fuller airplanes and hotels, workplaces and restaurants — and a growing economy they hope voters would notice.
But so far that storyline has been elusive. As fall of 2021 arrives, the path to normalcy seems, at best, unclear. And every day the calendar is getting closer to 2022, and to midterm elections.
Delta perceptions lock Biden's economy in perpetual purgatory - NBC News
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