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Hiring in the U.S. last month exceeded forecasts, while manufacturers expanded at a solid clip despite soaring materials costs and persistent supply and logistics challenges.
In the euro area, the latest data show prices pressures remained moderate in June, though inflation is seen picking up later this year as the economy reopens more broadly. Home prices in the U.K. are surging, a development that’s similar to the U.S.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
U.S.
The pace of hiring accelerated in June, with payrolls gaining the most in 10 months, suggesting firms are having greater success recruiting workers to keep pace with the economy’s reopening. The jobless rate ticked up because more people voluntarily left their jobs, indicating more confidence in their ability to find another one.
Manufacturing continued to expand at a solid, yet slightly slower pace in June while a measure of prices paid for materials jumped to an almost 42-year high. The Institute for Supply Management data also showed elevated order backlogs, lean factory customer inventories and record lead times for materials inputs.
Europe
Euro-zone inflation cooled in June to temporarily ease concerns that the bloc’s economic reopening will fuel price growth, though economists expect the pressures to gather pace again in the second half of the year.
U.K. house prices grew at their fastest annual pace for more than 17 years in June, adding to a growing wealth gap that’s worrying policy makers.
Asia
U.S.-China Rate Scenarios
China policy to ease relative to the U.S. once Fed hikes
Source: Federal Reserve, PPBOC, Bloomberg Economics
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate liftoff is unlikely to affect the People’s Bank of China’s policy calculus much, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Emerging Markets
Emerging-Market Growth
Base effects are set to drive gross domestic product in 2021
Source: Bloomberg Economics, national statistics offices
Note: India GDP reflects fiscal year
Taken together, major emerging-market economies have already surpassed their pre-virus peak. Individually, they’re recovering at different speeds, depending on virus containment, trade, commodities, capital flight, and a low base of comparison with the pandemic recession. Bloomberg Economics expects gross domestic product in major emerging markets to expand 8% in aggregate this year after contracting 1.1% in 2020.
Mexican workers abroad sent more money home than ever as growth and tight labor conditions in the U.S. boost spending power.
Upward Bound
South Africa's next benchmark interest rate move will be up
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Africa’s oldest central bank celebrated its centenary this week just as it started -- steering South Africa through an economic crisis. Policy makers cut the key interest rate by three percentage points in 2020, of which 275 basis points of easing was in response to the impact of the virus on the economy, taking it to a record low 3.5%. The central bank’s quarterly projection model, which the MPC uses as a guide, indicates two rate increases this year of 25 basis points each and a key rate of 6.11% in 2023.
World
Taxing Talks
Nine economies out of 139 have held back from signing on to a new framework for multinational companies
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
The Biden administration and global allies scored a major victory this week in their push for a more balanced international corporate tax system, but still face multiple significant obstacles to completing an ambitious plan that has been years in the making.
Tourism Slump
Estimated losses in percentage of GDP in select regions and countries
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development based on GTAP simulation.
The slump in tourism caused by Covid-19 will cost the global economy more than $4 trillion for 2020 and 2021, much worse than anticipated, as an uneven vaccination rollout crushes developing countries that are highly dependent on international visitors.
When Meat Is Unaffordable
Income is a major driver of meat consumption
Note: Chart shows data for 173 distinct economies. GDP per capita (based on purchasing power parity) and population data for 2019. Meat supply is the food available for human consumption (production and imports less exports) and data is for 2018.
Sources: The World Bank, The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
A jump in meat prices is forcing families from Brazil to the Philippines to buy less just as a broader move to plant-based eating is gaining traction.
— With assistance by Ziad Daoud, Scott Johnson, Chang Shu, Sophie Caronello, Christopher Condon, Marc Daniel Davies, Jeremy Diamond, Peyton Forte, Jonathan Gilbert, William Horobin, Prinesha Naidoo, Daniela Sirtori-Cortina, Agnieszka de Sousa, Justin Villamil, and Alexander Weber
Charting the Global Economy: Job Market in U.S. Gains Steam - Bloomberg
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