School closures have been hard on students and the economy - Toronto Star

Many will be relieved as shops and patios reopen this weekend, and turn their mind towards a summer with fewer constraints: not just seeing family and friends, but a broader reopening of the economy.

For many, the government’s decision to ignore the advice of public health and educators that schools should be “last to close and first to open” means the government has put the economy first. We disagree.

Ontario’s school closures are the longest in the Canada at 23 weeks or longer. Our COVID-19 transmission and deaths stats are comparable or inferior to other jurisdictions — while extended closures put Ontario’s economy and the future earnings of today’s children and youth at grave risk.

Worse: in Ontario there is no action plan nor meaningful investments to address educational harms and inequality that are pernicious side-effects of the pandemic.

Parents and educators have shared stories of how young people suffer, and there is a growing international body of research that document these harms. In our recently published Science Brief for Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, a group of scholars highlight multi-dimensional losses resulting from this year’s education disruption. All evidence says these harms are not equally distributed.

Economic studies demonstrate, again and again, that when students lose out on education, they experience a decrease in skills – both cognitive and noncognitive – that cause a loss to their “human capital.” Losses affect both individuals’ future labour market opportunities (what jobs they can get and how much they can earn) and national productivity — creating art, providing skilled services, or contributing to the next great innovation. Education and skills boost productivity and innovation, which in turn affects economic growth. When children learn less, our economy losses a vital ingredient for growth.

The effects of lost learning on the economy can be measured in at least three ways:

• Future economic losses for affected children:

When students lose out on their education, lower skills in turn affect their future wages and opportunities. Research highlighted in our brief estimates that this cohort of students’ lifetime earnings could decrease by about 1 per cent per month of missed schooling.

• Economic losses for parents:

The pandemic led to unprecedented job losses in the early months which led to large increases in the unemployment rate. Fewer women have re-entered the labour force as many female-dominated industries were hit hardest by COVID-related restrictions – this has been termed the “she-cession”. Many parents have suffered huge economic losses. The most recent Labour Force Survey shows that parents with young children in Ontario aren’t getting back to paid employment at the same pace as their counterparts in other provinces and territories. Labour force participation is strongly associated with economic growth — and Ontario is lagging behind.

• Overall economic loss:

Decreased consumption leads to lower economic growth. When Canadians (parents today and their children as future adults) become unemployed or earn less money, they tend to spend less on goods and services. This in turn employs less individuals who are needed to provide those goods and services.

Economists working with OECD and the World Bank have been sounding the alarm about the economic costs of learning loss across the world. They estimate that the overall long-run Canadian GDP will decrease by approximately $1.6 trillion due to the learning loss of the students affected by the school closures. To put this number into perspective, the entire GDP of Canada was $1.6 trillion in 2019.

In addition, disparities between children’s educational opportunities and outcomes since COVID-19 will, if we do not intervene, further contribute to rising income inequality. Income inequality – in addition to being unfair – also stifles economic growth.

As summer approaches, the conversation about school closings may recede from public attention. When students return to school come fall, we need not only a plan for a Safe September, but an urgent plan, with additional resources, that will support learning recovery – especially for the most vulnerable students.

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Other countries are investing in educational recovery and children’s futures: According to Britain’s Educational Policy Institute, to date the Netherlands has committed $4,285 per pupil, the US $2,742 and Britain $531 (in $CDN). Meanwhile, in Ontario, the government announced in May of this year a funding commitment of $85.5 million for learning recovery and renewal, most of which is earmarked for remote summer school. Shockingly, Ontario’s learning recovery budget for 2021-22 is not even $11 per student.

The decision to keep schools closed sells short children, parents and the entire economy. Underinvestment in safe learning environments and educational recovery is a terrible gamble with but with our children’s and our country’s future – both in terms of prosperity and human potential.

Elizabeth Dhuey is an associate professor of economics at the University of Toronto. She researches the economics of education. Kelly Gallagher-Mackay is an assistant professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. She studies educational inequality.

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School closures have been hard on students and the economy - Toronto Star
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