Report: The Global Economy Could Lose $4 Trillion Due To Covid-19’s Impact On Tourism [Infographic] - Forbes

The pandemic-related collapse in international tourism could cost the global economy as much as $4 trillion for the years 2020 and 2021, according to a new United Nations report. The estimated losses have been caused by Covid-19's direct impact on tourism as well as its ripple effects on other sectors closely linked to it. The steep drop in international arrivals led to a $2.4 trillion loss in 2020 and the UN's report warns that a similar loss could occur this year with the recovery largely dependent on the uptake of global Covid-19 vaccines.

The report states that while tourism losses are falling in most developed countries, the situation is deteriorating across much of the developing world due to vaccine inequality. While the industry is expected to rebound faster in countries with high vaccination rates such as the France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States, experts don’t expect a return to pre-Covid-19 international tourist arrival levels until 2023 or later.

The report bases its loss estimates for 2021 on three scenarios involving different drops in tourism arrivals as well as varying vaccination rates. The most severe scenario involves a 75% reduction in tourism arrivals which would lead to a $2.4 trillion loss this year. That could prove devastating for a long list of countries dependent on tourism such as Turkey where the industry accounts for 5% of GDP.

The report predicts that the worst-case scenario would lead to a $33 billion fall in tourism demand in Turkey with losses in related sectors such as food, beverages, retail trade, communications and transport leading to a $93 billion fall in output, three times the initial shock. While the decline in tourism would result in a real GDP loss of approximately 9%, according to the report, it would be partially offset in reality by fiscal measures to stimulate the economy. Elsewhere on the list, Ecuador is also expected to be among the worst-hit countries under the most severe scenario with a GDP loss of 9% while South Africa's GDP could also contract by as much as 8%.

*Click below to enlarge (charted by Statista)

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Report: The Global Economy Could Lose $4 Trillion Due To Covid-19’s Impact On Tourism [Infographic] - Forbes
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