Opposition parties say Liberal government's economic update is a byelection ploy - CBC.ca

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Opposition parties say Liberal government's economic update is a byelection ploy  CBC.ca
Opposition parties say Liberal government's economic update is a byelection ploy - CBC.ca
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Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations - Global News Toronto

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1. Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations  Global News Toronto
2. German economy unexpectedly shrinks in second quarter  FRANCE 24 English
3. Scholz Is Failing to Engineer a Liftoff for the German Economy  Bloomberg

Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations - Global News Toronto
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Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations - Global News Toronto

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1. Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations  Global News Toronto
2. German economy unexpectedly shrinks in second quarter  FRANCE 24 English
3. EU Economy: Germany Inflation Unexpectedly Quickens in Challenge to ECB  Bloomberg

Slowing Germany drags down Europe’s economy as U.S. tops expectations - Global News Toronto
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Freeland said focus is on economy and not her future as finance minister - The Globe and Mail

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Freeland said focus is on economy and not her future as finance minister  The Globe and Mail
Freeland said focus is on economy and not her future as finance minister - The Globe and Mail
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Oil Holds Near Six-Week Low With Chinese Demand, OPEC+ in Focus - BNN Bloomberg

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Oil Holds Near Six-Week Low With Chinese Demand, OPEC+ in Focus  BNN Bloomberg
Oil Holds Near Six-Week Low With Chinese Demand, OPEC+ in Focus - BNN Bloomberg
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Venezuela's economy runs on oil - and music - BBC.com

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Venezuela's economy runs on oil - and music  BBC.com
Venezuela's economy runs on oil - and music - BBC.com
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Jasper wildfire: Economic impact on tourism - Global News Toronto

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Jasper wildfire: Economic impact on tourism  Global News Toronto
Jasper wildfire: Economic impact on tourism - Global News Toronto
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BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg

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BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More  Bloomberg
BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg
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Opinion | On the economy and foreign policy, Biden has notched important wins - The Washington Post

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Opinion | On the economy and foreign policy, Biden has notched important wins  The Washington Post
Opinion | On the economy and foreign policy, Biden has notched important wins - The Washington Post
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BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg

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BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More  Bloomberg
BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg
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Against election backdrop, economic growth exceeds expectations - MSNBC

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Against election backdrop, economic growth exceeds expectations  MSNBC
Against election backdrop, economic growth exceeds expectations - MSNBC
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U.S. economy regains momentum in second quarter as inflation slows - The Globe and Mail

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1. U.S. economy regains momentum in second quarter as inflation slows  The Globe and Mail
2. US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate  Times Colonist
3. US growth likely picked up last quarter after a sluggish start to 2024, reflecting resilient economy  Yahoo Canada Finance

U.S. economy regains momentum in second quarter as inflation slows - The Globe and Mail
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Currency Headaches Confront Japan and China - Bloomberg

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Currency Headaches Confront Japan and China  Bloomberg
Currency Headaches Confront Japan and China - Bloomberg
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Opinion: For the sake of Canada’s economic interests, it’s vital we reset relations with China - The Globe and Mail

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Opinion: For the sake of Canada’s economic interests, it’s vital we reset relations with China  The Globe and Mail
Opinion: For the sake of Canada’s economic interests, it’s vital we reset relations with China - The Globe and Mail
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Theo Argitis: Taking stock of Canada’s complicated economy before tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision - The Hub

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Theo Argitis: Taking stock of Canada’s complicated economy before tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision  The Hub
Theo Argitis: Taking stock of Canada’s complicated economy before tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision - The Hub
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Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation - The Globe and Mail

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Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation  The Globe and Mail
Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation - The Globe and Mail
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Before age concerns forced exit, Biden was weakened by angst over economy - Al Jazeera English

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Before age concerns forced exit, Biden was weakened by angst over economy  Al Jazeera English
Before age concerns forced exit, Biden was weakened by angst over economy - Al Jazeera English
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Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation - The Globe and Mail

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Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation  The Globe and Mail
Under Biden, a booming U.S. economy was stung by inflation - The Globe and Mail
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'The lack of affordability is pinching:' Bank of Canada expected to cut Wednesday amid signs of softening economy - Financial Post

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'The lack of affordability is pinching:' Bank of Canada expected to cut Wednesday amid signs of softening economy  Financial Post
'The lack of affordability is pinching:' Bank of Canada expected to cut Wednesday amid signs of softening economy - Financial Post
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Biden's exit could prompt unwind of Trump-trade bets, while some eye divided government - USA TODAY

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Biden's exit could prompt unwind of Trump-trade bets, while some eye divided government  USA TODAY
Biden's exit could prompt unwind of Trump-trade bets, while some eye divided government - USA TODAY
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Opinion: Buckle up, Canada, the Donald Trump economic shock will hit us fast - The Globe and Mail

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Opinion: Buckle up, Canada, the Donald Trump economic shock will hit us fast  The Globe and Mail
Opinion: Buckle up, Canada, the Donald Trump economic shock will hit us fast - The Globe and Mail
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Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC - BNN Bloomberg

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Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC  BNN Bloomberg
Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC - BNN Bloomberg
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Britain's Treasury chief vows to run the economy with 'iron discipline' amid demands for pay raises - Toronto Star

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Britain's Treasury chief vows to run the economy with 'iron discipline' amid demands for pay raises  Toronto Star
Britain's Treasury chief vows to run the economy with 'iron discipline' amid demands for pay raises - Toronto Star
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Economic uncertainty is pushing Canadians to save at a rate not seen in decades - Financial Post

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Economic uncertainty is pushing Canadians to save at a rate not seen in decades  Financial Post
Economic uncertainty is pushing Canadians to save at a rate not seen in decades - Financial Post
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Canadians trust Conservatives with economy: survey - CTV News Montreal

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Canadians trust Conservatives with economy: survey  CTV News Montreal
Canadians trust Conservatives with economy: survey - CTV News Montreal
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Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC - BNN Bloomberg

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Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC  BNN Bloomberg
Population growth ‘masked’ Canada’s ‘recession-like economic backdrop’: RBC - BNN Bloomberg
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Oil prices steady amid strong U.S. dollar, Chinese economy concerns - The Globe and Mail

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Oil prices steady amid strong U.S. dollar, Chinese economy concerns  The Globe and Mail
Oil prices steady amid strong U.S. dollar, Chinese economy concerns - The Globe and Mail
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Opinion | Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 charts - The Washington Post

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Opinion | Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 charts  The Washington Post
Opinion | Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 charts - The Washington Post
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Canada’s Finance Minister Is Upbeat on Economy Amid Carney Reports - Bloomberg

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Canada’s Finance Minister Is Upbeat on Economy Amid Carney Reports  Bloomberg
Canada’s Finance Minister Is Upbeat on Economy Amid Carney Reports - Bloomberg
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Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts - MSN

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Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts  MSN
Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts - MSN
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The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt - Al Jazeera English

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The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt  Al Jazeera English
The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt - Al Jazeera English
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Canada's economy appears to have achieved soft landing, says IMF - Reuters

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Canada's economy appears to have achieved soft landing, says IMF  Reuters
Canada's economy appears to have achieved soft landing, says IMF - Reuters
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Republican convention tries to rewrite recent history on economy - MSNBC

Every night of the Republican National Convention will have its own specific theme, and last night the was focus on “Making America Wealthy Again.” Before even hearing the party’s pitch, the label is at odds with the status quo: The United States has the strongest economy on the planet and is currently “the envy of the world.”

Nevertheless, that’s not what attendees and viewers heard from Republican convention speakers.

“Under President Trump,” Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas declared, “we had the greatest economy in our lifetime.” Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama went further, insisting, “Under President Trump, we had the strongest economy in history. That’s right.”

Except, there’s nothing “right” about the claim at all. A Washington Post fact-check piece explained:

Britt is repeating one of Trump’s favorite falsehoods. Before the coronavirus pandemic shuttered businesses and sent unemployment soaring, the president could certainly brag about the state of the economy in his first three years as president. But he ran into trouble when he made a play for the history books to say it was the best economy in U.S. history. By just about any important measure, the economy under Trump did not do as well as it did under Presidents Harry S. Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson and Bill Clinton.

The Post’s piece actually understates matters. The economy didn’t do as well as it did under Barack Obama, either.

Even if we exclude 2020, when the pandemic created a sharp and sudden recession, the story that Republicans prefer to tell about Trump’s economic record is at odds with the facts. The Post published a memorable analysis on this as 2019 neared its end.

There’s no telling Trump that the economy is anything but sensational under his stewardship, of course, and there’s no telling him that it’s doing well for any reason other than his stewardship. Generally speaking, the economy is doing well, though there are ongoing concerns that the economic boom is slowing. But given Trump’s habit of comparing his performance to history, we thought it was worth comparing economic metrics under Trump to the second term of the last guy to hold Trump’s job: Barack Obama.

It’s not what Republicans wanted to hear, but comparing the economy under Obama and Trump at the same points in their presidencies, the Post found that the economy grew faster under Obama, hiring grew faster under Obama, the S&P 500 grew faster under Obama, the unemployment rate shrunk faster under Obama, and the national debt grew slower under Obama.

The analysis concluded, “[I]f we are linking economic numbers to presidential performance, Trump’s insistence that his abilities are unparalleled are rendered somewhat suspect in that he ranks second out of the last two presidents on a lot of these indicators.”

Remember, all of this was true before the pandemic took a severe toll on the economy.

Trump, of course, also ranks behind President Joe Biden, who has a stronger record than his GOP predecessor on job growth, unemployment and economic growth.

In other words, at the opening night of the Republican convention, the party was eager to rewrite recent history — something Republicans do with unnerving frequency, as I write about in my soon-to-be-released second book — but the facts are stubborn.

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Republican convention tries to rewrite recent history on economy - MSNBC
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How AI turbocharged the economy (for now) - The Globe and Mail

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For the best listening experience and to never miss an episode, subscribe to Machines Like Us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

---

If you listened to our last couple of episodes, you’ll have heard some pretty skeptical takes on AI. But if you look at the stock market right now, you won’t see any trace of that skepticism. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the chip company NVIDIA, whose chips are used in the majority of AI systems, has seen their stock shoot up by 700%. A month ago, that briefly made them the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of more than $3.3 trillion.

And it’s not just chip companies. The S&P 500 (the index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the U.S.) is at an all-time high this year, in no small part because of the sheen of AI. And here in Canada, a new report from Microsoft claims that generative AI will add $187 billion to the domestic economy by 2030. As wild as these numbers are, they may just be the tip of the iceberg. Some researchers argue that AI will completely revolutionize our economy, leading to per capita growth rates of 30%. In case those numbers mean absolutely nothing to you, 25 years of 30% growth means we’d be a thousand times richer than we are now. It’s hard to imagine what that world would like – or how the average person fits into it. Luckily, Rana Foroohar has given this some thought. Foroohar is a global business columnist and an associate editor at The Financial Times. I wanted to have her on the show to help me work through what these wild predictions really mean and, most importantly, whether or not she thinks they’ll come to fruition.

Mentioned

“Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity” by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson (2023)

“Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises” by Charles P. Kindleberger (1978)

“Irrational Exuberance” by Robert J. Shiller (2016)

“Gen AI: Too much spend, too little benefit?” by Goldman Sachs Research (2024)

“Workers could be the ones to regulate AI” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2023)

“The Financial Times and OpenAI strike content licensing deal” (Financial Times, 2024)

“Is AI about to kill what’s left of journalism?” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2024)

“Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton (2020)

“The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David H. Autor, David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson (2016)

Further reading

“Beware AI euphoria” by Rana Foroohar (Financial Times, 2024)

“AlphaGo” by Google DeepMind (2020)

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How AI turbocharged the economy (for now) - The Globe and Mail
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Why Trump's re-election could hit Europe's economy by at least €150 billion - Euronews

A Trump victory could trigger a 1% GDP hit to the eurozone economy, with Germany, Italy, and Finland most affected. Renewed NATO demands and potential cessation of US aid to Ukraine could further strain Europe.

The potential re-election of Donald Trump as US President poses a significant threat to the eurozone economy, with economists warning of a possible €150 billion hit, equivalent to about 1% of the region's gross domestic product. This impact stems from anticipated negative trade repercussions and increased defence expenditures.

The recent attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, where former President Trump sustained an ear injury, has boosted his re-election odds. Prediction markets now place Trump's chances of winning at 71%, a significant rise from earlier figures, while his opponent, Joe Biden, has experienced a sharp decline, with his chances dropping to 18% from a peak of 45% just two months ago.

Rising trade uncertainty and economic impact from tariffs

Economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn from Goldman Sachs have raised alarms over the looming uncertainty in global trade policies, drawing parallels to the volatility experienced in 2018 and 2019. They argue that Trump's aggressive trade stance could reignite these uncertainties.

"Trump has pledged to impose an across-the-board 10% tariff on all US imports including from Europe," Goldman Sachs outlined in a recent note.

The economists predict that the surge in trade policy uncertainty, which previously reduced Euro area industrial production by 2% in 2018-19, could now result in a 1% decline in Euro area gross domestic product.

Germany to bear the brunt, followed by Italy

Germany, Europe's industrial powerhouse, is expected to bear the brunt of this impact.

"We estimate that the negative effects of trade policy uncertainty are larger in Germany than elsewhere in the Euro area, reflecting its greater openness and reliance on industrial activity," Goldman Sachs explained.

The report highlighted that Germany's industrial sector is more vulnerable to trade disruptions compared to other major Eurozone economies such as France.

After Germany, Italy and Finland are projected to be the second and third most affected countries respectively, due to the relatively higher weight of manufacturing activity in their economies.

According to a Eurostat study published in February 2024, Germany (€157.7 billion), Italy (€67.3 billion), and Ireland (€51.6 billion) were the three largest European Union exporters to the United States in 2023.

Germany also maintained the largest trade surplus (€85.8 billion), followed by Italy (€42.1 billion).

Defence, security pressures and financial condition shifts

A Trump victory would also be likely to bring renewed defence and security pressures to Europe. Trump has consistently pushed for NATO members to meet their 2% GDP defence spending commitments. Currently, EU members spend about 1.75% of GDP on defence, necessitating an increase of 0.25% to meet the target.

Moreover, Trump has indicated that he might cease US military aid to Ukraine, compelling European nations to step in. The US currently allocates approximately €40bn annually (or 0.25% of EU GDP) for Ukrainian support. Consequently, meeting NATO's 2% GDP defence spending requirement and offsetting the potential reduction in US military aid could cost the EU an additional 0.5% of GDP per year.

Additional economic shocks from Trump's potential re-election include heightened US foreign demand due to tax cuts and the risk of tighter financial conditions driven by a stronger dollar.

However, Goldman Sachs believes that the benefits from a looser US fiscal policy would be marginal for the European economy, with by a mere 0.1% boost in economic activity.

"A Trump victory in the November election would likely come with significant financial market shifts," Goldman Sachs wrote.

Reflecting on the aftermath of the 2016 election, long-term yields surged, equity prices soared, and the dollar appreciated significantly. Despite these movements, the Euro area Financial Conditions Index (FCI) only experienced a slight tightening, as a weaker euro counterbalanced higher interest rates and wider sovereign spreads.

In conclusion, Trump's potential re-election could have far-reaching economic implications for Europe, exacerbating trade uncertainties and imposing new financial and defence burdens on the continent.

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Why Trump's re-election could hit Europe's economy by at least €150 billion - Euronews
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The RNC's first day will still focus on the economy. Here's what to know about Trump's plans - ABC News

WASHINGTON -- WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump goes into the Republican National Convention with bold promises about the U.S. economy, but he has sketched out notably few details about how his plans would actually work.

The convention's first day is still expected to focus on the economy even after Saturday's shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania in which the former president was injured.

If the program goes ahead as planned, expect speakers to argue that Trump's agenda of sweeping tariffs and lower taxes would jump-start the economy.

The former president says he wants tariffs on trade partners and no taxes on tips and would like to knock the corporate tax rate down a tick. The Republican platform also promises to “defeat” inflation and “quickly bring down all prices,” in addition to pumping out more oil, natural gas and coal.

The platform would address illegal immigration in part with the “largest deportation program in American history.” And Trump would also scrap President Joe Biden's policies to develop the market for electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Democrats and several leading economists say the math shows that Trump’s ideas would cause an explosive bout of inflation, wallop the middle class and — by his extending his soon-to-expire tax cuts — heap another $5 trillion-plus onto the national debt.

Trump has released few hard numbers and no real policy language or legislative blueprints. Instead, his campaign is betting that voters care more about attitude than policy specifics.

The Associated Press sent the Trump campaign 20 basic questions in June to clarify his economic views and the campaign declined to answer any of them. Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt insisted that Trump best speaks for himself and directed the AP to video clips of him.

By contrast, Biden has an exhaustive 188-page budget proposal that lays out his economic vision, even as his campaign had increasingly devolved before Saturday's rally shooting into questions about his age and whether he should remain the nominee after a self-defeating June 27 debate.

A recent analysis by the Peterson Institute of International Economics showed that deporting 1.3 million workers would cause the size of the U.S. economy to shrink by 2.1%, essentially creating a recession.

Stephen Moore, an informal Trump adviser and economist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, said Trump is unique in that he's already been president and voters can judge him off his record in office.

“You want to know what he’s going to do in his second term, look at what he did in his first term,” Moore said.

Democrats have argued that Trump would be more extreme in his second term, using his own remarks to say he would put independent federal agencies under his direct control and use the federal government to settle scores with his perceived enemies. The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 blueprint is a template for what a second term would look like, they argue, a claim that Trump has disputed.

But Moore said he believes that Trump would be pragmatic in office and focus on the needs of business to drive economic growth.

“There is an idea that it’s going to be like slash and burn — I don’t think it’s going to be a radical agenda,” Moore said.

Some of Trump's plans have gotten bipartisan backing. Both of Nevada's senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, are Democrats who would like to ban taxes on tips paid to workers, even as the Biden White House favors a higher minimum wage for tipped workers.

Companies do like Trump's ideas to cut regulations and further lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%. The tax rate had been 35% when he became president in 2017. Democrats, by comparison, want a 28% corporate tax rate in order to fund programs for the middle class and deficit reduction.

But Trump has also floated huge tariffs that he says would protect U.S. manufacturing jobs. Biden preserved the tariffs on China that Trump introduced and went a step further by banning exports of advanced computer chips to China.

Companies generally dislike tariffs — which are taxes on imports — because they can raise costs, which are then likely borne by consumers. An analysis by the economists Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely found that Trump's tariffs would cost a typical U.S. household $1,700 a year in what would effectively be a tax hike.

Trump's tariff plans could worsen inflation as a result, even though the Republican says in videos that he would reduce inflation. It's unclear how Trump would lower inflation, which peaked in 2022 at 9.1% and has since eased to 3% annually.

“The tariff issue is extremely important — and people are not paying enough attention to the magnitude of the Trump tariff policy, what the consequences would be,” said Clausing, a former Biden Treasury Department official and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.

But tariffs might be more of a political winner than an economic strategy, according to a research paper earlier this year by the economists David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson. The research found that the tariffs during Trump's first term did not increase employment, but the tariffs did help Trump politically in the 2020 election in the industrial areas that lost jobs to China and other countries.

Clausing noted that Trump is proposing tariffs on more than $3 trillion of imports, a 10-fold increase over what he did in his first term. She noted that the tariffs could make it more expensive to bring in the raw materials that U.S. factories need while also raising prices for consumers already struggling with high inflation. She said she wants people to understand the risks Trump's economic policies could pose before it's too late.

"“I think people will notice when everything gets wildly expensive,” she said. “This is going to be a huge disaster.”

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The RNC's first day will still focus on the economy. Here's what to know about Trump's plans - ABC News
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China’s economy slowed in the last quarter as weak consumer demand dragged on growth - CityNews Halifax

BANGKOK (AP) — China’s economy expanded at a slower-than-forecast 4.7% annual rate in the last quarter, the government reported Monday, while emphasizing signs of improvement in factory output, income and investment.

The expansion was sharply below the 5.3% annual pace of growth seen in the first quarter of the year.

The progress this year, after growth slowed sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, has been “hard won,” the National Bureau of Statistics said.

“Since the beginning of this year, global economic growth momentum has been weak, inflation is sticky, geopolitical conflicts, international trade frictions and other problems have occurred frequently, domestic demand is insufficient, enterprises are under great operating pressure, and there are many risks and hidden dangers in key areas,” it said in a statement.

“There are many difficulties and challenges in promoting the stable operation of the economy,” it said.

Economists say weak consumer demand and reduced government spending are dragging on growth in the world’s No. 2 economy.

The statistics bureau said the economy grew at a 5% pace in the first half of the year, at the target set by the government for around 5% growth.

In quarterly terms, the way many countries report their growth, the economy grew 0.7%.

The update came as leaders of the ruling Communist Party gathered for a once-a-decade conclave to set economic policy that was expected to focus on self-sufficient strategies for growth in an era of tensions over trade and technology.

The four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s 205-member Central Committee is the third plenary session of a five-year term that started in 2022. This year’s meeting was expected to be held last year, but was delayed.

The policies resulting from the closed-door meetings are likely to come days after it ends.

Party plenums usually focus on long-term issues, but business owners and investors are watching for any immediate measures to counter a prolonged downturn in the property market and persistent malaise that has suppressed China’s post-COVID-19 recovery.

Recent bright spots suggest growth has stabilized.

On Friday, the government reported higher than expected exports in June that further boosted China’s trade surplus.

Exports grew 8.6% from the same time a year earlier, though imports fell 2.3%. The trade surplus widened to $99 billion, up from $82.6 billion in May.

The statistics bureau said Monday that factory output rose 5.3% in June.

Retail sales, a measure of consumer demand, were up 4.1% in January-May, while nominal disposable income, not adjusted for inflation, grew 5.4%, it said.

But that level of retail sales is well below expectations, noted Yeap Jun Rong of IG.

“Retail sales may be the biggest disappointment, with its significant underperformance reinforcing the weak state of consumer spending, in line with recent subdued price data and imports figure,” he said in a report.

Expanding consumer demand is seen as key to supporting sustained strong growth, but has proven difficult as companies shed jobs during and after the pandemic, causing many Chinese families to tighten their purse strings.

Despite the strong start to the year, policies to address the problems have been cautious and ineffective, as the property market continued to weigh on the economy, Louise Loo of Oxford Economics said in a commentary.

“Stagnating household credit growth, consumer confidence, and personal savings rates hint at no sign of a genuine recovery yet,” she said.

Although exports jumped in recent months, rising tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles to the United States and Europe will add to obstacles facing Chinese manufacturers that are being encouraged to ramp up investment and production at a time of weak demand in the home market.

Elaine Kurtenbach, The Associated Press

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China’s economy slowed in the last quarter as weak consumer demand dragged on growth - CityNews Halifax
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City of Vernon to consider spending $50k on new economic development strategy - Castanet.net

Photo: Castanet file

Vernon council will consider spending $50,000 to develop a new economic development strategy, Monday.

City administration is looking to hire a consultant to develop a new multi-year economic development strategy. Staff say a new strategy would identify four to six focus areas that aim to retain and attract investment, businesses, and residents to Vernon.

If approved, the new strategy is expected to take six to eight months with a request for proposal to hire a consultant kicking off the process in August.

The strategy comes from the city’s Economic Development and Tourism department, established in January 2009. Vernon’s first economic development strategy was adopted by council in 2020.

An update was completed in 2013, and staff say many conditions used for the basis of the original 2010 strategy have substantially changed over the last 14 years. Conditions includ, the city’s population growth, economic conditions changing, recent changes to zoning bylaws, and the city updating its Official Community Plan.

A new economic strategy would consider questions like:

• Are the current program and service offerings meeting the needs of Vernon entrepreneurs and businesses?
• What is the City's Economic Development and Partnerships department's role in the delivery of economic development program and services?
• As Vernon grows, should there be more advocacy to regional, provincial and national economic development organizations to establish a local presence in
• Vernon to deliver their programs and services?
• The process is estimated to cost between $40,000 and $50,000, if approved by council.

The process is estimated to cost between $40,000 and $50,000, if approved by council.

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'Terrible management': Financial expert says it will take 'decades' to fix Canada's economy - PentictonNow

Canada’s economy has suffered for decades from “terrible management” and it will take decades to fix it, a finance expert has argued.

Stephen Johnston, who works as Omnigence Asset Management’s director in Calgary, said Canada has become the “poster child for stagflation.”

Stagflation occurs when a country’s economy suffers from sluggish growth – stagnation – and rising prices – inflation – at the same time.

That combination “makes nobody happy,” Johnston told NowMedia video host Jim Csek, since it leads to lower living standards.

Explaining Canada’s precarious economic position, Johnston emphasized the country’s lack of manufacturing, loss of capital, fiscal deficits, overvalued housing, uncertainty about natural resources development and penchant for borrowing.

He discussed many of those points in a paper earlier this year titled “Is Canadian growth dead?”

“Basically, Canada is the poster child for stagflation,” he said. “Like, if you think, there was a list of 20 things you shouldn't do … And you certainly shouldn't do all of them. We've basically done all of them.”

Canadians – as well as foreigners – have been investing their cash, or capital, outside of the country “in earnest for the last decade,” Johnston said, describing that situation as “a travesty.”

“Without capital, you don't have affluence,” he explained. “I mean, it's very straightforward.”

What capital the country does have, he added, “is disproportionately focused on residential real estate.” In other words, people are spending their savings on homes rather than investing in, for example, Canadian start-ups.

Meanwhile, the country has “borrowed to consume,” a practice Johnston classes as “effectively stealing growth from the future.”

All that amounts to “terrible management,” he argued.

“It's just appalling economic and legislative and administrative and policy decision-making,” he said. “I mean, it just is. And so we've set up this set of conditions that are going to take a very long time to fix.”

Just how long would it take to get out of the hole Johnston thinks the Canadian economy has found itself in?

“It'll take decades to fix what's happened because you have to, first of all, deleverage,” he said. “And then you have to fix the regulatory environment to attract capital. And then you have to discourage consumption and encourage capital investment.

“Right now we encourage consumption and discourage capital investment, so you've got to change the tax system to do that. We've got to address the tax rates both on the capital side and the income side in Canada.

“I don't want to sound like a doomsayer, but there is a very long list of things that need to be done.

“And that which takes decades to create takes decades to fix.”

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'Terrible management': Financial expert says it will take 'decades' to fix Canada's economy - PentictonNow
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BLOG: Energy exports continue to fuel the Canadian economy - Fraser Institute

Energy sits at the heart of Canada’s export economy, even though some federal policymakers and provincial governments appear to be discomfited by that fact.

In recent years, energy has supplied 20–25 percent of Canada’s total international exports (goods plus services combined), with crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas making up the lion’s share of our energy-related shipments to other countries. Canada’s energy export basket also includes coal, uranium, and electricity.

In the last two decades, energy has become Canada’s leading export sector, mainly owing to higher oil production volumes, rising hydrocarbon exports, and still-robust global demand for fossil fuels (which provide 80 percent of the world’s primary energy). Measured in millions of barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), Canadian conventional oil and gas production rose from 4.5 million BOE per day in 2015 to 5.4 million/day last year, with most of the additional output destined for the United States. With the completion of pipeline expansion projects and the looming start-up of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production on the West Coast, oil and gas are set to play an even bigger role in Canada’s economy and export portfolio in the coming years.

A May 2024 modelling study by S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts a further jump in conventional oil and gas output of between 0.5 and 1.0 million BOE/day by 2035, assuming the federal government doesn’t impose draconian caps on production in the sector as part of its shambolic climate policy agenda.  Based on that scenario, S&P estimates that production, capital and operating spending in Canada’s conventional oil and gas industry will add up to $1.3 trillion to Canada’s gross domestic product by 2035. This forecast is premised on a modest (8 percent) increase in output and further declines in the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions intensity due to efficiency measures, advances in technology, greater use of carbon capture, and other factors.

To illustrate the contribution that energy makes to Canada’s prosperity, the Coalition for A Better Future  recently estimated that without exports of oil, natural gas and other energy goods, Canada’s cumulative trade deficit with the rest of the world—which stood at $130 billion in the decade ending in 2023—would have ballooned to $1 trillion.

Thanks to energy production, Canada garners up to $200 billion of additional export receipts each year—and the figure is set to rise significantly in the next decade. This outsized stream of export earnings furnishes the means to pay for imports, supports hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs, and generates tens of billions of dollars of extra revenues for Canadian governments.

In Canada’s case, it is also worth noting that energy reliably produces the largest trade surplus of any sector, by a wide margin. And, as noted above, that surplus will increase in size over the rest of this decade and possibly beyond, mainly due to oil and gas output and exports climbing from current levels.

Averaged over the period 2022-23, Canada’s two-way trade in energy goods yielded a net annual surplus of almost $150 billion.  This dwarfs the surpluses posted in other natural resource-based sectors such as metal ores, non-metallic minerals, agri-food, and forest products. Large trade surpluses in energy—and, to a lesser extent, in other natural resource industries—offset chronic Canadian trade deficits in consumer goods, machinery and equipment, electronic products, and other high-tech goods. Canada also runs a trade deficit of $35-40 billion in motor vehicles and parts.

Trudeau government ministers are fond of talking up (and subsidizing) Canadian non-fossil fuel energy industries, like (carbon-free) electricity, biofuels, hydrogen (production of which currently is almost non-existent in Canada) and the “clean tech” sector. However, except for electricity, these segments of the Canadian energy sector are very small in size and export little. And while the “clean tech” industry does hold considerable promise over the medium term, today it accounts for less than one percent of Canada’s international exports.

When it comes to energy exports, the reality for Canada is that oil, natural gas, and other fossil fuel products dominate the picture—and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

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BLOG: Energy exports continue to fuel the Canadian economy - Fraser Institute
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Faster U.K. economy growth gives boost to new Labour government - The Globe and Mail

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The Bank of England in London. on Nov. 1, 2017.DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/Getty Images

Britain’s economy grew more quickly than expected in May, providing some momentum for the new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer but adding to doubts about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

Economic output increased by 0.4% in May, after a 0.2% rise in April, the Office for National Statistics said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to another 0.2% monthly increase.

The strength of the upturn could dissuade the BoE from beginning to cut interest rates as soon as Aug. 1, its next scheduled monetary policy announcement date. Three policy-makers this week emphasized the strength of domestic price pressures.

The chance of a rate cut in three weeks’ time fell below 50% on the futures markets from just above 50% on Wednesday.

May saw a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services, manufacturing and construction industries all growing and the latter up by 1.9% on the month, driven by house-building.

The figures represented an early boost for the new Labour administration, which has set itself the aim of achieving the fastest growth among the Group of Seven advanced economies on a sustained basis.

“The improving economic outlook suggests the government may benefit from the economic recovery being stronger than most forecasters anticipate,” Ashley Webb, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics, said.

Britain’s economy appears to have snapped out of its low-growth rut, at least for now. Output has grown by 1.5% since the turn of the year, marking its best five months since early 2017, excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday nudged up its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2% from 1.1%.

Still, the longer-run picture remains weak, with the economy only 2.7% larger than its pre-pandemic level of late 2019.

According to the latest quarterly data, only Germany has fared worse since the pandemic.

Over the three months to May, the economy expanded by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.

The BoE said last month it expected the economy would grow by 0.5% over the second quarter – something that now looks likely to prove too low.

“These GDP figures may make an August rate cut less likely by providing those rate setters who are concerned about underlying price pressures with sufficient confidence about the UK’s economic recovery to continue putting off loosening policy,” Suren Thiru, economics director at accountancy body ICAEW, said.

Separate ONS data showed Britain’s overall trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed to 3.2 billion pounds ($4.1 billion) in May from 4.7 billion pounds in April.

But goods exports to the European Union fell to their lowest since January 2022, when Brexit customs checks were introduced, and consistent with levels seen during the late 1990s.

Starmer has said he wants to reduce trade frictions with the EU but he will not agree to joining the bloc’s single market.

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Faster U.K. economy growth gives boost to new Labour government - The Globe and Mail
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Poilievre gets mix of applause, heckles at Assembly of First Nations in speech about 'economic reconciliation' - National Post

The question-and-answer portion got a little testy, with two women telling him to 'educate' himself on inherent treaty rights

Published Jul 11, 2024  •  Last updated 14 hours ago  •  5 minute read

Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre answers a question at the Assembly of First Nations, Thursday, July 11, 2024 in Montreal. Photo by Ryan Remiorz /The Canadian Press

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OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre promised to end Ottawa’s “paternalistic” approach and to focus on economic reconciliation in his first in-person address to the Assembly of First Nations in Montreal on Thursday.

Poilievre, who has been criticized for past comments deemed insensitive on residential school survivors but who has apologized since, attempted to showcase his vision as an aspiring prime minister as one of collaboration and partnership with First Nations peoples.

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“This is my first meeting with you in person, but I hope it will be the first of many,” he said.

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Poilievre’s appearance at the AFN was tense at times. Some veterans and delegates chose to turn their back on him during the speech. And the question-and-answer portion got a little testy, with two women telling him to “educate” himself on inherent treaty rights.

Poilievre spoke about the shared values between Conservatives and first peoples, values of faith, family, work, tradition and entrepreneurship. He also explained how his core promises, including the one to axe the federal carbon tax, would benefit them.

He said he supports the Chiefs of Ontario’s legal challenge against the federal government on the carbon tax, which they say is discriminatory for people living on reserves.

“I have good news. When I’m prime minister, the Chiefs of Ontario will not have to spend any more money on lawyers, because I will axe the tax and, when I say it, I mean it.”

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But the first round of applause came when Poilievre promised to support an optional First Nations resource charge that he said would allow them to “take back control” of federal tax revenue generated by resource projects on their lands.

“I don’t deserve the applause,” he said. “This was a First Nations developed idea. I simply came along and accepted it, put it in my platform. You all did the hard work of developing this idea. I’m simply here to follow your marching orders and make it happen.”

Some more applause followed after he issued a challenge to CEOs in the neighbouring office towers of downtown Montreal to train Indigenous youth and offer them jobs instead of flying in foreign workers.

As he has said many times before, Poilievre insisted that he wants to “run a small government with big citizens free to make their own decisions and live their own lives.”

For too long, you've been held back by a broken system that takes power away from you and places it in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats in Ottawa

Pierre Poilievre

“For too long, you’ve been held back by a broken system that takes power away from you and places it in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats in Ottawa. That’s why I’m committed to ending the Ottawa-knows-best paternalistic system,” he said.

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Poilievre said he would like to see more economic growth and development, which will give people “better jobs, more opportunities and powerful paycheques” and vowed to listen to First Nations’ concerns about development projects but also act on their support.

“If reconciliation means anything, it means saying ‘yes’ to economic opportunities that First Nations are asking for,” he said.

Poilievre also addressed the federal government’s “painful and destructive” past decisions for Indigenous peoples, most notably the residential school system that he said “removed children from the love and care of their families” for decades.

“It was a monstrous abuse of excessive governmental power to cut your children off from their cultures, languages and traditions. In many cases, students were neglected and abused tragically. Too many young children never came home,” he said.

“Those were terrible crimes by a big and imposing government against each victim and against your communities.”

In 2008, hours before then Prime Minister Stephen Harper issued a formal apology to residential school survivors, Poilievre openly wondered in a radio interview if, by compensating survivors, the government was “really getting value for all of this money.”

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“My view is that we need to engender the values of hard work and independence and self-reliance. That’s the solution in the long run. More money will not solve it,” he said.

A recent biography about Poilievre described this moment as one of the biggest mistakes of his political career. The next day, Harper “dressed him down so sharply that people outside the room were embarrassed,” according to one account in the Globe and Mail.

Poilievre later apologized for his comments in the House of Commons.

Sixteen years later, the aspiring prime minister speaking to the AFN declared “there is more work to be done” to right the wrongs of the past and promised to “be a partner to the First Nations” while recognizing it “won’t be easy.”

“We won’t always agree, and you’ve heard enough promises and enough performative reconciliation,” he said. “What we need are honest and direct conversations and a partnership based on a nation-to-nation relationship and mutual respect.”

A few minutes later, AFN delegate Judy Wilson went up to the microphone to call out Poilievre for failing to acknowledge the LGBTQ community, missing and murdered Indigenous women or climate change in his speech.

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“How can we dismiss the climate crisis? It’s real. It’s happening. We have heat domes people are dying from. We have wildfires. That has to be one of your top agendas, not just the economy and business,” she said.

Mary Teegee, a hereditary chief for Takla Lake First Nation, said First Nations endured “the worst… years ever” under the Harper government and said that “an apology (for residential school survivors) without actions… are just hollow words in the wind.”

“We want to ensure that what we endured under the Harper regime, we won’t go through that with you,” she said.

Wilson and Teegee both blasted Poilievre for not acknowledging First Nations inherent treaty rights, with Wilson adding “you need to educate yourself on that.”

The last time Poilievre addressed the AFN was with a video message in December 2022. At the time, he received some boos from the people in attendance.

National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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Poilievre gets mix of applause, heckles at Assembly of First Nations in speech about 'economic reconciliation' - National Post
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