China's economy just had its best month since February - CNN

Hong Kong (CNN Business)China's huge manufacturing and service industries just saw their first month of growth since February, according to surveys published Thursday, as Covid restrictions were eased in many cities.

But the shadow of further lockdowns still looms over the world's second biggest economy as Beijing sends mixed messages about the best way out of the Covid pandemic.

The Chinese government's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing — which mainly covers larger businesses and state-owned companies — rose to 50.2 in June, the first time it has crossed the 50 mark since February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. A reading above 50 indicates that activity is increasing.

Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes construction and services industries, jumped to 54.7 in June, compared with 47.8 in May. It was also the first time the index has moved back into expansion territory in four months, and its strongest reading since May 2021.

The surveys provide the latest signs of recovery in China's economy, as the country gradually reopens for business following months of widespread Covid lockdowns.

"The official PMIs point to a surprisingly rapid recovery in services activity this month after virus restrictions were mostly lifted," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics.

But he also pointed to continued weakness in the labor market, warning that it means household finances and consumer confidence remain fragile.

"Once the reopening boost fades, this will weigh on any further recovery," he added in a research note.

Many cities — including mainland China's business hub Shanghai — had been under strict Covid restrictions since March, resulting in a sharp contraction in economic activity. People were confined to their homes, shops and restaurants were shut, and factories were closed. Analysts worry that the Chinese economy will contract in the second quarter, putting the government's annual growth target of 5.5% for 2022 out of reach.

Signs of an economic slowdown and soaring unemployment have rattled top government officials, who have moved to loosen Covid restrictions and boost confidence.

Workers assemble speakers at an electronics factory in Linquan, Anhui province.

Premier Li Keqiang — No. 2 in the hierarchy of China's Communist Party — has repeatedly sounded the alarm on rising unemployment in recent months and urged the government to take stronger steps to support business and stabilize growth.

On Monday, Li visited a job training center in Beijing and underscored the need to "steer the economy back on track as soon as possible" and "bring down unemployment as quickly as possible."

Earlier this month, many cities lifted their lockdowns or relaxed Covid-related curbs, including Shanghai.

On Tuesday, the National Health Commission said China will cut the quarantine period for international travelers by more than half, a major shift in the country's Covid policy.

But analysts fear that China may stick to harsh Covid restrictions for a while.

On Wednesday, China's President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to the zero-Covid policy during a visit to Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. Xi said he would rather "temporarily sacrifice a little economic growth" than "harm people's health," according to state-run news agency Xinhua.

Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, expected the recent surge in China's economic activity to be sustained into July, as further relaxation of mobility restriction takes place. But Xi's adherence to the zero-Covid stance would keep a lid on growth, he added.

"China is sticking to the zero Covid policy stance. I think this means economic growth will likely stay below its potential before the policy is further relaxed, " Zhang said.

— CNN's Yong Xiong in Seoul and Beijing bureau contributed to the report.

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The US economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter, adding to recession fears - CNN

Minneapolis (CNN Business)The US economy shrank at a slightly faster rate than previously estimated during the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Wednesday.

With one quarter of negative economic growth in the books, the data adds to fears that a recession may be looming.

Real gross domestic product declined at an annualized rate of 1.6% from January to March, according to the BEA's third and final revisions for the quarter.

Previously, the advance estimate released in April showed a contraction of 1.4%. Last month, that was revised to a decrease of 1.5%.

The first quarter GDP performance, which the BEA noted includes some unquantified effects from the pandemic and the Omicron variant surge, stood in contrast to the fourth quarter of 2021, when the economy grew at a rate of 6.9% from the prior quarter.

The first quarter of 2022, however, marked the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sent economic shockwaves throughout the global supply chain, as well as the food, finance and energy markets.

Domestically, US inflation has soared to levels not seen in decades amid ongoing supply chain challenges, rising costs for commodities and labor and spiking oil prices.

While a recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP declines, that's not a hard-and-fast rule, especially for the folks who make the official determination. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of US recessions, considers a range of indicators in addition to GDP performance and defines a recession as a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."

The advance estimate for second-quarter GDP performance is scheduled for release on July 28.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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The US economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter, adding to recession fears - CNN
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China's economy didn't bounce back in the second quarter, China Beige Book survey finds - CNBC

China's exports surged by 16.9% in May from a year ago, two times faster than analysts expected. Pictured here on June 15, 2022, are workers in Jiangsu province making stuffed toy bears for export.

Si Wei | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese businesses ranging from services to manufacturing reported a slowdown in the second quarter from the first, reflecting the prolonged impact of Covid controls.

That's according to the U.S.-based China Beige Book, which claims to have conducted more than 4,300 interviews in China in late April and the month ended June 15.

"While most high-profile lockdowns were relaxed in May, June data do not show the powerhouse bounce-back most expected," according to a report released Tuesday. The analysis found few signs that government stimulus was having much of an effect yet.

Shanghai, China's largest city by gross domestic product, was locked down in April and May. Beijing and other parts of the country also imposed some level of Covid controls to contain mainland China's worst outbreak of the virus since the pandemic's initial shock in early 2020.

In late May, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held an unprecedentedly massive videoconference in which he called on officials to "work hard" — for growth in the second quarter and a drop in unemployment.

Transportation, construction companies aren't telling you they're getting new products. They're telling you they've slowed investment, their new projects have actually slowed.

Shehzad H. Qazi

Managing Director, China Beige Book

Between the first and second quarters, hiring declined across all manufacturing sectors except for food and beverage processing, according to the China Beige Book report.

The employment situation likely won't start to improve until China stimulates its economy more in the fall, China Beige Book Managing Director Shehzad H. Qazi said Wednesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

So far, there's been little sign that stimulus has kicked in, especially in infrastructure, said Qazi who is based in New York.

"Transportation, construction companies aren't telling you they're getting new products," he said. "They're telling you they've slowed investment, their new projects have actually slowed."

Inventories surge, orders drop

Unsold goods piled up, except in autos. Orders for domestic consumption and overseas export mostly fell in the second quarter from the first. Orders for textiles and chemicals processing were among the hardest-hit.

The only standout domestically was IT and consumer electronics, which saw orders rise during that time. Orders for export grew in three of seven manufacturing categories: electronics, automotive and food and beverage processing.

"Weak domestic orders and expanding inventories indicate the presumed second-half improvement will be unpleasantly modest," the report said.

The authors noted the services sector saw the greatest reversal. After accelerating in growth in the first quarter, services businesses saw revenue, sales volumes, capex and profits drop in the second quarter.

Across China, only the property sector and the manufacturing hub of Guangdong saw any year-on-year improvement, the China Beige Book said.

Official second-quarter gross domestic product figures are due out July 15. GDP grew by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year ago.

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China's economy didn't bounce back in the second quarter, China Beige Book survey finds - CNBC
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Sudan’s economy dominated by military interests: Report - Al Jazeera English

C4ADS report says crackdown on patronage networks was a contributing factor to last October’s coup.

The Sudanese military and security forces have a sprawling monopoly over the country’s economy, a system that must be tackled to restore the country’s transition to democracy, a report has concluded.

The report, by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), was published on Wednesday alongside a database that identifies 408 entities controlled by security elites, including agricultural conglomerates, banks, and medical import companies.

Under Sudan’s former civilian-military transitional government, which was tasked with guiding Sudan’s transition towards democracy, an anti-corruption committee was formed to confiscate assets from figures who made a fortune under the former President Omar al-Bashir.

Observers have argued that the confiscations struck at the core of the military’s patronage networks and played a significant role in compelling senior officers to topple the civilian administration in a coup last October, which has been followed by months of protests.

But C4ADS said that countries that seek to support democracy in Sudan have the tools to weaken the country’s “deep state”.

“Governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and private companies have a role in dismantling Sudan’s deep state through economic sanctions, de-risked aid, and increased due diligence around private investments,” the authors of the report said.

Economic Monopoly

The report zoomed in on two major banks, Omdurman National Bank (ONB) and Khaleej Bank, which the military and security forces use to access global financial networks, respectively.

The military – through a web of front charities – owned 86 percent of the shares in the former, according to the report.

Khaleej Bank, meanwhile, was controlled mainly by joint ventures that belong to the United Arab Emirates and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – two players that have strong political and economic relations.

The latter is a paramilitary force that evolved out of tribal militias that rebel forces called the Janjaweed, which committed massacres in the western province of Darfur.

The report estimated that the family of RSF leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo – better known as Hemeti – controls 28.35 percent of the shares in Khaleej Bank.

The report also reviewed Zadna International Company for Investment Ltd, a majority-army-owned agricultural conglomerate, on whose board of directors Hemeti’s brother, Abdel Rahim Dagalo, sits.

The company has run numerous irrigation schemes and leased out plots of land to private investors, according to Suleiman Baldo, an expert on the predatory economy in Sudan and the founding director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker.

“The story about Zadna is that it was a public company that was simply taken over by the military, which is monopolising its revenue and not giving the ministry of finance access to any of it. That’s the problem with Zadna,” Baldo said.

Reputational Damage

The spokesperson for Sudan’s military, Nabil Abdullah, denied accusations that the army has a monopoly over civilian sectors in the economy, and said that Sudan’s former civilian administration was unwilling to assume partial control of military-owned companies.

“[The army] has no economic control [of the country]. This is a lie and misleading,” Abdullah told Al Jazeera.

The report by C4ADS said otherwise. The nonprofit followed policy experts, rights groups, and United States officials in calling for targeted sanctions on enterprises owned by the military and the RSF.

Baldo acknowledged that such a move could unintentionally hurt everyday civilians who are already struggling to survive after billions of dollars worth of development assistance and debt relief were halted in response to the coup.

He added that sanctions may not be necessary since the US has already released a business advisory that warns of reputational risks to Western companies that try to partner with military enterprises in Sudan. The findings published by C4ADS could further deter foreign companies and institutions from conducting business in the country.

“Even without the sanctions, the deterrence effect that sanctions cause already exists,” Baldo said.

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How a ‘pragmatic’ Horgan reshaped BC NDP’s economic identity - Business in Vancouver

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Sri Lanka Economy Shrinks 1.6% Amid Political Chaos, Inflation - BNN

(Bloomberg) -- Sri Lanka’s economy fell back into contraction last quarter as the country battled its worst economic problems since independence, with emergency aid to stabilize the island nation proving elusive.

Gross domestic product declined 1.6% in the quarter ended March from a year earlier, the Department of Census and Statistics said in a statement on Tuesday. That’s shallower than a 3.6% contraction seen by economists in a Bloomberg survey and compares with a revised 2% expansion in the previous quarter.

The contraction likely marks the beginning of a painful and long recession for the country, whose Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe last week said the economy had “completely collapsed.” The crisis follows years of debt-fueled growth and populist fiscal policies, with the Covid-19 pandemic’s hit to the dollar-earning tourism industry serving as the last straw.

Absence of foreign exchange to pay for import of food to fuel led to red-hot inflation, the fastest in Asia, triggering protests against the government led by the Rajapaksa clan that eventually led to the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa as premier. While the months-long protests hurt business activity in parts of the country, the government on Monday imposed new curbs, which includes a call to residents to stay home until July 10 to conserve fuel. 

That will depress activity further, while raising the risk of more unrest given lingering shortages of essential goods.

Sri Lanka is in talks with the International Monetary Fund for aid to tide over the crisis, with at least $6 billion needed in the coming months to prop up reserves, pay for ballooning import bills and stabilize the local currency. The central bank has raised interest rates by 800 basis points since the beginning of the year to combat price gains that touched 39%.

Other details from the GDP report include:

• For the first quarter, the services sector grew 0.7% from a year earlier
• Industrial production slipped 4.7% and agriculture output contracted 6.8%

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy sending mixed signals: Maybe a recession isn't coming - Axios

The job market is strong. Layoffs are happening. Businesses are pessimistic. Consumers are still spending.

• If you're having a hard time figuring out this economy, you're not alone — it's sending all sorts of mixed signals.

Why it matters: The inflation crisis — namely record gas prices — has plunged consumer sentiment to an all-time low.

• Meanwhile, the Fed's bid to wrest control of price spikes by imposing interest-rate hikes is having far-reaching effects.

The big picture: Depending on where you focus your attention, the economy can look nowhere near as bad as some people say — or that we're heading for a total face-plant:

• The unemployment rate is only about a point away from an all-time low, but companies like Redfin, Netflix and Coinbase are cutting workers.
• Business optimism hit the lowest point in the 12 years of JPMorgan Chase’s Business Leaders Outlook Pulse survey, released today. But durable goods orders rose 0.7% in May, according to figures released today, signaling that companies were still spending.
• Mortgage rates are pricing many buyers out of the housing market — but median home price growth held steady for a third straight week last week.

Reality check: The pandemic triggered a period of profound economic disruption, leaving some of the economic tea leaves harder to read than in past cycles.

• Much of what seems today like conflicting or inconsistent data could simply be the result of an economy on the brink of change.

What they're saying: "As people learned to live with COVID-19 and prove resilient so far to higher prices at the checkout stand, economic momentum will likely protect the U.S economy this year," S&P Global Ratings U.S. chief economist Beth Ann Bovino said Monday in a statement. "What's around the bend in 2023 is the bigger worry."

The bottom line: Uncertainty is toxic for investor and consumer sentiment.

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Economy sending mixed signals: Maybe a recession isn't coming - Axios
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The global economy is falling below expectations - The Economist

For a look behind the scenes of our data journalism, sign up to Off the Charts, our weekly newsletter

IT IS WELL known that markets hate uncertainty. Bad news, then, that by one measure the world economy is throwing up more nasty surprises for investors. Citigroup’s global economic-surprise index (CESI), which measures the degree to which macroeconomic data announcements beat or miss forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, has fallen into negative territory for the first time since November (the indices for America and China have been negative since mid-May). Since the summer of 2020 economic indicators had tended until recently to surprise on the upside. But as inflation has surged and consumer confidence has flagged, they are now failing to meet forecasters’ expectations. (See chart.)

Measures of economic surprises appear to be a useful way to gauge market sentiment. When the economy is booming data releases will typically be better than analysts expected, boosting the CESI. During an economic downturn, economic statistics will fall below the consensus estimate, leading to negative surprises. From June 2020 to July 2021, when the CESI for America was positive thanks to upbeat employment, inflation and housing figures, the S&P 500 index of big American firms rose by 38%. Since then the CESI has bounced above and below zero, and shares have fallen by roughly 9%.

In a paper published in 2016 Chiara Scotti, an economist at the Federal Reserve, constructed her own surprise index based on five indicators: GDP, industrial production, employment, retail sales and manufacturing output. America’s index also measured personal income. Ms Scotti found that positive economic surprises in America were associated with appreciation of the dollar relative to the euro, pound sterling and yen. (In fact, Citi’s index was designed by the bank’s foreign-exchange unit for trading currencies, not stocks.)

But the surprise index can be hard to interpret. The CESI includes both backward- and forward-looking macroeconomic indicators, and is weighted in favour of newer releases and those that tend to have the biggest impact on markets. Because the index reflects economic performance relative to expectations, it can be negative during expansions if forecasters are too optimistic, and positive during contractions if they are too gloomy. But as Citi analysts wrote in a research note, “coincident rather than causal relationships are relied on even if they have no consistency whatsoever.” ■

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The global economy is falling below expectations - The Economist
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Britain's Battered Economy Is Sliding Toward a Breaking Point - BNN

(Bloomberg) -- Britain under Prime Minister Boris Johnson is running into the biggest headwinds it’s faced since the 1970s, heaping pain on an economy still reeling from Brexit and the pandemic.

After suffering from unprecedented shocks in recent years, the nation is succumbing to more intractable problems marked by plodding growth, surging inflation and a series of damaging strikes.

The result is a plunge in consumer confidence that analysts warn may lead to a recession. Railway workers walked off the job in anger that their living standards are slipping, and teachers, doctors and barristers may be next.

The malaise is a far cry from the boom and “cool Britannia” reputation that Tony Blair’s government enjoyed through the early part of this century.

The headline figures make grim reading. The economy is on track to shrink in the second quarter, raising the possibility that the UK is already in a recession. Even when the outlook appeared brighter, officials estimated that growth would settle at a below-par 1.8% a year, with no end in sight to the feeble productivity that has blighted the country for over a decade.

While growth is on track to lag most major economies next year, inflation is also on the rise. Consumer prices surged by 9.1% in the year through May, the most for 40 years. 

The Bank of England expects inflation to accelerate again when energy bills are allowed to rise in the autumn, reaching more than 11%. 

It’s a blow for the UK, which led the world in growth after the pandemic, and recalls the dark days of the 1960s and 1970s when commentators and politicians identified Britain as the “sick man of Europe” because of its performance.

Those figures overshadow deeper structural problems hobbling the UK. Chief among them is productivity growth, which slowed to a crawl after the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Only Italy put in a worse performance.

How much a worker can produce is important because it drives the long-term potential of the economy. Low productivity limits the pace at which output can grow and depresses wage packets. Real wages took years to recover to their 2007 levels after the financial crash.

An hour of work in the UK generates around $60, according to the OECD. The figure is over $70 in the US and about $67 in France and Germany. Economists and policy makers debate the causes of the malaise but say that fixing it is crucial if Britain is to get out of the slow lane.

The gaps in performance within the UK are equally stark, with London consistently outpeforming other regions, in part due to the concentration of financial services in the capital city. Johnson came to to power in 2019 on a pledge to “level up” poorer parts of the country, but there are few signs that the policy is working.

One explanation for the productivity gap is a lack of investment. British companies spend less on things like plant, machinery and technology than those in most other major economies.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says the tax system is one of the problems and is working on a way to improve allowances companies can claim for making investments. 

Brexit uncertainty also seems to have unsettled executives, with investment flat-lining since the 2016 public vote to leave the European Union. Had they continued to spend as they did before the referendum, investment would be around 60% higher today.

Life outside the EU has also had an impact on trade as importers and exporters contend with higher trade barriers.  Despite a sharp fall in the pound since the vote, there is little evidence to suggest the external sector has benefited from increased competitiveness. 

Analysis by Bloomberg Economics shows the UK lagged behind the trade performance of other big nations before the pandemic, and has failed to fully share in the global trade rebound since then.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“It’s been six years since the UK voted to leave the European Union and more than one since it established a new relationship with its main trading partner. From a 16% devaluation of the pound to an eye-watering slide in trade and investment, Brexit’s impact is plain to see. The data have only reinforced our view that life outside of the EU would leave the UK worse off.”

--Ana Luis Andrade, Bloomberg Economics. Click for the INSIGHT. 

The housing market is another constraint. Prices have risen almost without break since 1995, straining affordabilty for first-time buyers. Properties are in short supply in places like London that’s long been the engine driving the national economy. 

The expense and difficulty of moving limit labor mobility, depriving companies and public services of key workers, and leave consumers channeling more wealth into the property market than their peers abroad.

Housing is the most visible drain on consumers, but wages are lagging too. Real wages adjusted for inflation are now falling at the fastest pace in 20 years. In 2019, wages in the UK trailed far behind those in the US and Canada.

Workers are rebelling, with rail unions embroiled in the biggest work stoppage since 1989 and teachers, doctors and barristers are threatening to walk off the job. 

The strife recalls the 1970s, when Harold Wilson’s Labour government put industry on a three-day week because of an energy crisis and strikes by coal miners.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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India's Economy Shows Spark on Pent-Up Demand After Reopenings - BNN

(Bloomberg) -- India’s economy gathered momentum in May driven by pent up demand for services and higher output from industries as reopening continued from pandemic restrictions.

Five of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News showed improvement, pushing the needle on a dial measuring so-called ‘Animal Spirits’ to 6, from 5, for the first time since July and the first upward move in more than a year. The gauge is based on the three-month weighted average scores to smoothen out volatility in the single-month readings.

The upturn was fueled by an expansion in services activity and a robust growth in core infrastructure industries. However, an unprecedented rise in input prices, due in part to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and persistent demand-supply imbalances, may spoil sentiment going forward. 

Higher food, fuel, labor and transportation costs are forcing central banks globally to prioritize price stability over growth. The Reserve Bank of India has raised borrowing costs by 90 basis points so far this year and vows to do more to bring price gains below its target ceiling of 6%. 

Erratic weather and an uptick in virus cases risks also impeding the recovery. The number of daily virus cases increased about sixfold in the last one month.

Below are details of the dashboard. (For an alternative gauge of growth trends, follow Bloomberg Economics’ monthly GDP tracker -- a weighted index of 11 indicators.)

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed activity in India’s dominant services sector in May rose to the highest level in eleven years, while momentum in the manufacturing sector remained steady. That helped pull the S&P Global India Composite PMI to the 10th consecutive month of expansion.

Inflation expectations, though, continued to weigh on business confidence as input costs climbed to a new record, the survey showed. Companies will continue to transfer mounting costs to consumers going ahead, which could keep inflation elevated.

Exports

India’s trade deficit widened to an all-time high of $24.33 billion in May due to higher gold and petroleum imports. Official data showed that surging commodity prices kept merchandise imports above $60 billion for the third month in a row, while exports growth slowed due to geopolitical uncertainties. 

Consumer Activity

India’s automobile sector saw another month of decline in May, but the extent of fall was smaller as some segments such as car and two-wheeler sales showed a pick-up from a month ago.   

In other signs of consumer activity, bank credit grew 12.1% at the end of May, from 11.1% in April. Liquidity conditions also remained in surplus.

Industrial Activity

Two other key indicators of industrial activity, which are published with a one-month lag, showed robust growth in April. Factory output growth rose to a eight-month high of 7.1% from a year ago, led by a double-digit increase in electricity production, while manufacturing and mining also expanded at a healthy pace. A similar trend was seen in the output growth of eight infrastructure industries, which increased to 8.4% from 4.9% in March. 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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India's Economy Shows Spark on Pent-Up Demand After Reopenings - BNN
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India's Economy Shows Spark on Pent-Up Demand After Reopenings - Bloomberg

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India's Economy Shows Spark on Pent-Up Demand After Reopenings  Bloomberg
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Expectations negative as views of economy, finances worsen — CBS News poll - CBS News

Americans' assessments and outlook for the economy are poor, with most anticipating at least a slowdown, if not a recession, in the coming year. On a personal level, views on their own finances are down from a year ago, and many voice concern about the ability to afford things, or to save, going forward. It's an important sentiment because Americans' views on spending can in turn impact the economy. On a brighter note, however, feelings about job security remain relatively more confident by comparison.

Current assessments of the national economy are getting worse. Just 22% think it's good — down even further from 26% in May — while the percentage saying it's "bad" has gone up to 75% — a new high for the Biden presidency. That is a 12-point rise since April.

Majorities of Republicans, independents, and Democrats all rate the economy as bad. The 60% of Democrats who rate the economy bad is notable because it's moving closer to the views of independents and Republicans, even though a president's own party often gives rosier assessments than others. Democrats' positive assessments have dropped over recent months. They were at 42% good last month.

Americans feel increasingly insecure in their own personal financial and economic situation today, compared to a year ago. Just half describe it as fairly or very good, down from 60% a year ago. 

The pandemic had an impact from which many have still not recovered, either. Comparing things back to before it hit, just 13% of Americans say their own family's financial situation is better than it was beforehand, and for four in 10, things are worse.

In sum, most Americans describe the last few years for themselves and their families as "challenging" and "stressful." 

Higher prices have particularly impacted many, more so than higher interest rates or the stock market. Most say the price of food and gas has affected them a lot, and most are concerned about their ability to pay for day-to-day things, to save money or to pay for a big-ticket item or take a vacation. 

Many do still plan outings or trips this summer — even as the longer-term concerns about savings, and even retirement, clearly weigh on them. 

Seven in 10 working full- or part-time are concerned about their plans for retirement, and six in 10 parents of children under the age of 18 are concerned about their ability to pay for child care.

The public says there's plenty of reasons for inflation, a mix of market forces and policies; most say it's because costs for manufacturers and producers have gone up, and they also blame government spending during the pandemic, but most also feel companies are charging more to get higher profits. Relatively fewer, but still a majority, point to President Biden's policies. (Democrats do not.)

A gas-tax holiday does find slight majority favor, even if it means less money would be available for roads, bridges and infrastructure, and it's tempered by skepticism that it will actually lower prices.

Overall, President Biden's job approval rating is now at 41%, marking the lowest approval rating of his presidency. Biden gets negative ratings on most issues tested, but he receives his lowest marks for his handling of the economy and inflation — which the country puts at the top of the priority list of things to address.

President Biden does continue to get positive marks for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and most think things are going well for the U.S. in its efforts to deal with it. But just about a third of Americans think of it as a high priority issue for the country these days.

A big majority favor the bipartisan gun policy bill that was recently passed by Congress and signed into law. 

This poll was conducted mostly before the announcement of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. For public reaction to that decision read more of our polling here. 

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,265 U.S. adult residents interviewed between June 22-24, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.6 points. 

Toplines:

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Anthony Salvanto

Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is CBS News' director of elections and surveys. He oversees all polling across the nation, states and congressional races, and heads the CBS News Decision Desk that estimates outcomes on election nights. He is the author of "Where Did You Get This Number: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World," from Simon & Schuster (a division of ViacomCBS), and appears regularly across all CBS News platforms. His scholarly research and writings cover topics on polling methodology, voting behavior, and sampling techniques.

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Expectations negative as views of economy, finances worsen — CBS News poll - CBS News
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America Wasted Its Chance to Push the Economy Forward - The Atlantic

We blew it.

That is the queasy feeling I have as I watch borrowing costs surge, housing starts fall, and politicians rush to subsidize fossil-fuel consumption. Americans had a decade-plus in which interest rates were low and millions of workers were unemployed or underemployed. We could have made investments that would have benefited all of us. And we wasted that chance.

This period of unusually low interest rates, which lasted from the 2008 global financial crisis until now, was horrible in many ways. Too many people were unemployed for too long, and too many found themselves trapped in dead-end, no-security jobs while the cost of living climbed to astronomical levels. But it was an opportunity too. Borrowing was cheap, and the government  could have built and built and built without crowding out private investment or overheating the economy.

Instead, we slogged through the recovery from the Great Recession, needing more fiscal stimulus that never arrived. We wasted $2 trillion on tax cuts for rich people. We made some infrastructure improvements, but mostly delayed and dithered. While we did so, a catastrophic housing shortage developed, driving up the price of everything else. Our cities crumbled and roads buckled. The climate crisis intensified as we remained in fealty to fossil fuels that are bleeding families dry and destroying the planet.

Now we are left trying to fix these problems with higher labor costs, higher borrowing costs, higher real-estate costs, and higher material costs, at a time when every additional dollar of government spending risks stoking inflation and Uncle Sam is competing with the private sector for every hire.

Americans missed the opportunity to make progress in at least three major areas. First, infrastructure. We could have fixed what we have and built what we needed when interest rates were at scratch and the jobless rate for construction workers was 10 or 15 or even 20 percent, as left-of-center politicians suggested over and over and over again. Congress finally passed a compromise bill last year, but the cost of construction has swelled nearly 30 percent since 2019,  and the legislation hardly meets the enormous scale of the challenge.

Take the number of bridges—just bridges—that need repair. Roughly 46,000 of them out of the 617,000 across the country are structurally deficient. And we face similar problems with our electric grid, airports, water and wastewater systems, roads, highways, and mass-transit systems. Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor is falling apart, as is the New York City subway, and fixing them will cost millions more than it would have a decade ago.

We also failed to fill the infrastructure gaps we have known about for decades. We still do not have high-quality train service between Las Vegas and Los Angeles, Los Angeles and San Francisco, Dallas and Houston. We do not have simple connections between many of our major downtowns and their servicing airports (pray for anyone trying to get to New York’s JFK, ever). Our public schools desperately need new HVAC systems, windows, roofs, and plumbing upgrades, as they have for years.

Nor did Americans seize our zero-interest-rate moment to build infrastructure for the future. Our tech sector might be the envy of the world. But Americans still pay more for slower internet service than citizens do in many other nations; more than 150 million people in this country surf the web at speeds that do not meet the Federal Communications Commission’s broadband standard.

Second, energy. We could have used our free-money moment to transition the economy to renewables. On the demand side, we could have made every home, commercial building, and government office more efficient using insulation and other cheap-and-easy fixes. We could have electrified everything, using subsidies and regulations to replace gas stoves with induction stoves, gas-powered vehicles with electric cars, and furnaces with heat pumps. On the supply side, we could have offered solar panels to every homeowner who wanted them. We could have constructed nuclear-power plants, hydropower plants, solar farms, and wind farms, flooding the market with cheap, abundant, and clean fuel.

Instead, we made marginal improvements to the supply of clean energy, weaning ourselves off  fossil fuels a bit. But the United States still derives nearly as much power from coal as it does from renewable sources. We produce more crude oil than we did a decade ago, thanks to fracking and the shale boom. Gasoline consumption remains near its record high. Our slow energy transition has left us vulnerable to gyrations in the oil markets and made our climate crisis that much worse.

Third, housing. We did not build enough of it when capital was cheap, mortgage rates were low, and blue-collar workers needed jobs, leaving us with a shortage conservatively estimated at 3.8 million units. Instead, we turned our most vibrant cities into gated communities controlled by what amount to mercenary homeowner associations, letting disproportionately wealthy and white groups of neighbors hold up, shrink, or kill housing projects and drive up costs for everyone. New York City added 908,000 jobs but just 206,000 housing units from 2009 to 2019. As a result, the cost of a home in Brooklyn or Manhattan doubled. During the same period, San Francisco added more than 200,000 jobs but just 31,000 housing units. As a result, rents doubled.

The problem might be most acute in the superstar cities on the coasts. But it is nationwide: Despite the unemployment rate dropping below 4 percent and wages surging, nearly half of renters pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. Moreover, tens of thousands of people have fallen into homelessness in the past few years.

Each of these issues urgently needs attention. And we could have imagined and constructed a better future for ourselves in so many more ways: new research institutes for vaccines and green energy; more community colleges, trade schools, and medical schools; a comprehensive, publicly financed day-care and early-childhood-education program. Yet we have a political system choked with veto points, whether the supermajority requirement in the Senate or community-input requirements at local zoning boards. We have a political system incapable of making long-term investments—indeed, of building anything big at all. We missed a rare window of opportunity. We still need to act, but we will have to do so when our problems are more entrenched and costs are higher.

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America Wasted Its Chance to Push the Economy Forward - The Atlantic
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Varcoe: 'Vote with their feet' — more people moving to Alberta as economy gains traction - Calgary Herald

Since last July, more Canadians have relocated to Alberta from other provinces than have left

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Jun 25, 2022  •  14 hours ago  •  4 minute read  •  10 Comments

The familiar YAHOO sign has been installed on the pathway in East Village in advance of the Calgary Stampede. Azin Ghaffari/Postmedia

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Attending a Toronto conference this week to promote Calgary’s tech sector, Mayor Jyoti Gondek found some receptive soil to plant a message to workers who might be considering a move to Stampede City.

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Calgary has open tech jobs — more than 4,300 by one count — along with a growing number of start-up firms and an affordable quality of life.

It didn’t hurt that Calgary was just named the third-most liveable city in the world by the Economist Intelligence Unit (tied with Zurich), and ahead of Vancouver and Toronto.

Reasonable commute times and housing prices that are half the level seen in Canada’s largest city also help the messaging.

“There are many people we spoke to here that said they’re having a hard time making ends meet because it’s expensive to be in Toronto,” Gondek said in an interview.

“It’s less expensive to live here and it’s beautiful. So I think Calgary’s competitive advantage is two-fold: We’ve grown the ecosystem in a way that we have a critical mass of people, and we’re also ranking even higher than before in terms of quality of life.”

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It’s no surprise a city’s mayor would tout her hometown as a great place for any company — not just tech — to set up shop.

It comes with the job description.

Yet, as Alberta recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, some signs back up the belief.

After several miserable years of a population drain, more people are moving here from other parts of Canada.

Since last July, more Canadians have relocated to Alberta from other provinces than have left, including 5,351 residents between January and March — the strongest growth recorded in almost seven years, according to data released this week.

The biggest contribution came from Ontario.

It wasn’t very long ago that the moving trucks were generally headed in the other direction. After oil prices detonated in 2015, layoffs reverberated throughout the industry and the economy sputtered.

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The province lost nearly 18,000 people in the net interprovincial shuffle the next year. Nearly 6,000 left during the first year of the pandemic.

Now, the tide has turned.

“It’s a trend, but we don’t know yet if it’s a lasting trend,” cautioned Janet Lane, director of the Human Capital Centre at the Canada West Foundation.

“It is good news for Alberta that we have a lot of open jobs. We have jobs that are for everybody, not just people with high levels of post-secondary education.”

In a study released this spring, the think-tank found Alberta lost an average of about 1,100 young adults (aged 25 to 29) between 2015 and 2021, reversing past population flows.

The Calgary Tower rises above Centre Street in downtown on Friday, June 24, 2022. Gavin Young/Postmedia

Younger adults regularly move for education, employment, or family reasons, but it’s an ominous long-term trend if they’re persistently departing because they don’t see a future at home. (The latest population report doesn’t break down the ages of people moving between provinces.)

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It’s clear the overall employment picture has improved in the past year.

A TD Economics report released Wednesday projects Alberta’s economy will lead the country this year, growing by 5.5 per cent.

In May, Alberta’s jobless rate dropped to 5.3 per cent, its lowest point since early 2015.

By the first quarter of this year, the province had 88,000 vacant jobs — and 96 per cent were outside the oil and gas industry, Lane noted.

Workers are needed in areas such as agri-food, energy, film and television, health care and accommodations.

“There are some really good things happening, but there’s some work still to be done on the inclusivity and vibrancy piece that young people are looking for as well,” added Lane.

ATB Financial chief economist Rob Roach expects the influx of people from other provinces will continue as more jobs are created and the economy grows.

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“People really do vote economically with their feet,” he said.

While the economy is diversifying, Roach pointed out oil and gas extraction have made up an average of about one-quarter of Alberta’s GDP over the past decade. With high prices, the province’s bread and butter industry is doing well this year.

The paradox is that diversification is also helping make the province more attractive to outsiders.

This graphic by Alberta Office of Statistics and Information shows population projections for the next 25 years. Source: Government of Alberta

“People want to move for different reasons or different types of jobs,” he added.

“It’s not like in the old days where it was just one (sector), ‘Oh, oil and gas are doing great, that’s the full story.’ There’s more to it, but oil and gas are still right at the heart of it.”

Affordability is also playing in the province’s favour. The average selling price for a home in Toronto sat at $1.2 million in May. In Calgary, the benchmark price was $546,000.

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For Calgarians, the share of household income needed to cover their ownership costs (including mortgage payments, taxes and utilities) sat at 35 per cent in the first quarter of the year, according to RBC Economics.

In Toronto, it was 75 per cent, eclipsed by Vancouver at an eye-watering 82 per cent, the bank found.

At the Collision technology conference, Calgarian Brett Colvin spoke with many people in the industry who were curious about what was going on in the city.

They asked the CEO of Goodlawyer, a legal services start-up based in Calgary, about the size of the local tech ecosystem, jobs and the affordability of office space.

“They’re asking more questions, that’s what I noticed, and are more receptive to the idea of moving to Calgary. If I go back to when we first started Goodlawyer, we came out to Toronto, nobody in the start-up world had any interest in Calgary,” Colvin said Friday.

“It’s still very early days…but hopefully, this conference, that event, will spark that curiosity into some serious movement into our province.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

cvarcoe@postmedia.com

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Varcoe: 'Vote with their feet' — more people moving to Alberta as economy gains traction - Calgary Herald
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Ontario premier Ford vows to rebuild economy, unveils new Cabinet - Reuters.com

OTTAWA, June 24 (Reuters) - Doug Ford took the oath of office for a second term as the premier of Canada's most populous province on Friday with a promise to build highways and homes, and rebuild Ontario's economy.

Ford's right-leaning Progressive Conservatives returned to power with a sweeping victory in a provincial election on June 2, winning 83 seats in the 124-seat legislature.

He unveiled a larger 30-member Cabinet, moving former solicitor general Sylvia Jones to role of minister of health and deputy premier, while keeping Peter Bethlenfalvy in post as the debt-laden province's finance minister.

Ford said he had an "ambitious plan" for his second stint, as his government faced challenges posed by inflation rates hitting a nearly 40-year high in Canada.

"That plan starts with rebuilding Ontario's economy," Ford said at his swearing-in ceremony.

He reiterated pledges made in the lead-up to the election, including new spending on highways, transit and the auto sector.

"We're investing to connect every part of our auto supply chain ... the cars of the future will be built right here, Ontario, from start to finish," Ford said.

Ontario, home to just under 40% of Canada's 38.2 million people, is Canada's manufacturing heartland. It is also one of the world's largest sub-sovereign borrowers, with publicly held debt in excess of C$400 billion ($309.6 billion).

Ford also pledged to address soaring home prices in the province by building more affordable housing.

Canada's national housing agency projects Ontario to be one of the worst affected by a housing shortage over the next decade. Provincial capital Toronto is already one of the most expensive cities to live in globally.

"Too many families are frozen out of the housing market ... we need to build more attainable homes," Ford said.

($1 = 1.2921 Canadian dollars)

(This story was refiled to fix typo in headline)

Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ontario premier Ford vows to rebuild economy, unveils new Cabinet - Reuters.com
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